UFC Jacksonville Gambling Preview: Will Josh Emmett Stop The Ilia Topuria Hype Train?

We’re in the middle of the summer run, and so you know what that means: UFC action coming at you every single weekend until the last week of September. This week that action is UFC Jacksonville, headlined by a pivotal featherweight clash between top-10 fighters Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria. But before that matchup, we’ve got 13 other fights to enjoy, so let’s hop right into which ones I’ll be betting on.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Table of Contents

Straight Bets

Neil Magny, -170

Remember when Anderson Silva used to say his dream fight would be against his own clone? Well, that’s what Neil Magny gets when he faces Phil Rowe on Saturday.

Magny and Rowe have nearly identical body types and also fight similarly, with the major difference being that Magny is just better at everything. He’s a better clinch fighter, offensive wrestler, grappler, and has a much better gas tank. All of that lines up poorly for Rowe.

Austen Lane, +150

There is absolutely no way I’m watching UFC Jacksonville and not putting some action down on Duval’s favorite son. For those not in the know, Lane was drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the fifth round of the 2010 draft, playing for the team for three seasons before getting released, including starting nine games as a rookie defensive end. We’re talking about a man who was an All-American football player out of Murray State who was a Buck Buchanan Award finalist. The man had 55 tackles for loss in his career! How man tackles for loss did Justin Tafa record? I rest my case.

Prop Bets

Brendan Allen by Submission, +175

I love the run of form Allen has shown lately. Only 27-years-old and already with a wealth of experience, he looks to be a classic example of a fighter learning on the fly and simply getting better over time. Most recently, he put the wood to Andre Muniz, a guy many people were very high on after he submitted Jacare Souza, and I think he can do the same to Bruno Silva. Silva is a dangerous puncher and decent wrestler, but he’s been submitted six times in his career, including less than a year ago by Gerald Meerschaert, and I just think Allen is on the rise.

Parlay of the Week

I love a gimmick, and that’s what I’ve got this week. The RB Parlay!

Amanda Ribas/Maycee Barber Over 2.5 Rounds, -215

Ribas and Barber are both durable fighters, with Ribas only having been finished once in the UFC and Barber having never been stopped. Furthermore, five of Ribas’ eight UFC fights have gone to decision while Barber has seen the score cards in her past six straight bouts. This fight lines up to go long.

Randy Brown, -225

This should be a great spot for Brown. Turman is not a great striker and one who has twice had his clock cleaned inside the UFC. Brown, in contrast, is very dangerous on the feet, has good takedown defense, and has a considerable size advantage. Unless Turman has made a leap in his game, this figures to be a long night of failed takedowns and piston right hands from Brown.

Parlay these two bets together for +111 odds.

Longshot of the Week

Josh Emmett by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1, +1400

Let’s start by saying this: I think Ilia Topuria is going to win this fight. That being said, the odds feel a little bit long as Topuria is often aggressive to the point of recklessness, and Emmett has the sort of monstrous power that can make him pay for it. Yair Rodriguez’s mithril chin is the only reason he didn’t pay for such recklessness, and while Topuria seems to have a good beard on him, it hasn’t been that battle tested. Jai Herbert nearly cleaned his clock and early in this fight, Emmett is going to have chances. It’s just a question of if he can convert.

Wrap Up

Mixed weekend last week. Nailed the parlay and the Sergio Pettis call, but came up short on a few others. A ton of straight plays this week so let’s hope the chalk comes through.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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