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Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje might be fighting for a gimmick title on Saturday, but another shot at the real thing might not be too far off.
It’s only fitting that the second-ever “BMF” title fight feature Poirier and Gaethje, long two of the UFC’s most exciting and fan-friendly fighters. Not that either man needs that validation. Their resumes speak for themselves.
Both are interim UFC lightweight champions. Both have racked up over a who’s who of the best at 155 pounds (and in Poirier’s case, a few at 145 pounds). Both are familiar with cashing bonus checks: Poirier is tied for the most Fight of the Night bonuses at eight while Gaethje has earned a total of 11 post-fight bonuses in 11 UFC appearances.
Excitement guaranteed.
But the winner of Saturday’s UFC 291 main event won’t just be adding to an illustrious legacy, they might just make a case to challenge for an undisputed title. Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev faces Charles Oliveira in a rematch this October and after that his schedule appears to be wide open. He could fight Alexander Volkanovski again. Or he could follow in the footsteps of his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov and look to add Poirier or Gaethje to his list of title defenses.
This isn’t just about legacy for the UFC 291 headliners, it’s about stakes.
The same is true for the co-main event, which sees former UFC light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz welcome former UFC middleweight champion Alex Pereira to the 205-pound division. Blachowicz had a chance to regain his title this past December, but could only battle Magomed Ankalaev to a split draw, so if he wants another crack at it he has to get past the hard-hitting Pereira.
“Poatan” has put his rivalry with Israel Adesanya aside for now (possibly for good) and finds himself in pursuit of a second UFC belt just 10 fights into his MMA career. It would surprise no one if Pereira put Blachowicz down for the count and went on to book his third title bout in four fights.
In other main card action, longtime heavyweight contender Derrick Lewis looks to snap a skid against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, lightweight lifers Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green face off, and Michael Chiesa returns from injury to take on surging welterweight Kevin Holland.
What: UFC 291
Where: Delta Center in Salt Lake City
When: Saturday, July 29. The card begins with a three-fight early prelims portion on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET, with continuing coverage of the four-fight prelim card on ABC, ESPN, and ESPN+ beginning at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
Table of Contents
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje
Undoubtedly, both Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje have improved since their first meeting. By that logic, this shouldn’t play out too differently from the first fight unless Gaethje has made some kind of quantum leap past Poirier developmentally speaking. I doubt that’s the case.
At some point you are who you are and while I expect this fight to have a more methodical start compared to their 2018 Fight of the Year encounter, once the strikes start landing and blood starts flowing, these guys will revert to their base instincts. In this scenario, I trust Poirier more to find his center and pull out of a potentially precarious game of chicken.
From there, it’s just a matter of Poirier breaking Gaethje down like he did the first time, being mindful of Gaethje’s leg kicks and haymakers while slipping in his own power shots. Beating anyone twice at this level is a tall task, but Poirier has already prevailed in his three previous rematches against Conor McGregor, Max Holloway, and Eddie Alvarez. If there’s any fighter that knows how to utilize what got them to the dance in the first place while also implementing fresh tactics, it’s “The Diamond.”
The build-up to the finish will be different, but the result will be the same: Poirier by fourth-round knockout.
Pick: Poirier
Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
Seeing Alex Pereira fast-track himself to another title shot would be awesome and this was the right matchup to give him to make that happen. It might prove to be too legitimate of a test though.
Jan Blachowicz has been counted out time and time again (trust me, I’m one of the goofs who keeps doing it) and he always seems to find a way to beat more famous, more hyped, and more athletic fighters. He’s not too bad at this MMA thing, apparently. He’ll have to expertly mix the martial arts to avoid getting his head taken off by Pereira too.
Or maybe it’s more appropriate to suggest that he doesn’t mix the martial arts and instead look to turn this into a wrestling match. Because as much as I respect Blachowicz’s standup skills (people seem to forget that when Blachowicz faced another middleweight star in Israel Adesanya, he had success with both his grappling and his striking), you simply can’t mess around with a one-punch KO threat like Pereira.
Pereira can end this one at any moment, but I have serious doubts about his ability to keep Blachowicz off of him for three rounds. If he had another 10 minutes to work with, I’d probably lean towards Pereira. As it stands (or doesn’t, in this case), Blachowicz’s wrestling should carry him to a tense decision win.
Pick: Blachowicz
Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
I’ll admit it: I’ve lost faith in Derrick Lewis.
For the longest time, you could count on “The Black Beast” swangin’ and bangin’ his way to a competitive effort against the best of them, while utilizing his patented “just get the F up” grappling style to keep the fight on the feet where he likes it. However, his recent losses aren’t just a case of bad luck. He’s still swangin’, he’s just not always bangin’. And it’s taking a lot more effort to get up than it used to.
If Lewis is going to snap his three-fight losing streak, there were worse options for the matchmakers to give him than Marcos Rogerio de Lima. Unlike his past three opponents, none of whom were older than 30 when Lewis fought them, de Lima is only a few months younger than Lewis. So at the very least, there isn’t a noticeable athleticism gap for Lewis to overcome.
That said, it’s Lewis’ declining defense that prevents me from picking him as I expect him to once again be rocked on the feet before being finished on the mat by an aggressive “Pezão.”
Pick: De Lima
Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green
Everything I just wrote about Lewis goes double for Tony Ferguson.
Yes, we’ve seen plenty of flashes of vintage Ferguson even as he’s stumbled to the tune of five straight losses. And like with Lewis, I think the matchmakers did an excellent job of finding Ferguson an opponent in Bobby Green who has name value and is also a winnable fight on paper.
There’s just been such a sharp decline in Ferguson’s results, I can’t pick him to win fights anymore. Not very “Prince of Positivity” of me, I know.
Again, it’s the defense that troubles me. Does prime Tony Ferguson eat that face kick from Michael Chandler? Does he get caught by that Nate Diaz guillotine? Is he dominated so thoroughly by Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush? There’s no shame in losing to this run of great opponents, but at 39, the climb is getting harder for Ferguson, not easier, no matter who he fights from now on.
Green is no layup either. Though he has just as many miles on the odometer as Ferguson, his style has always been more conducive to avoiding damage and he can be just as unorthodox on the feet. This will be a fun striking battle that ends with Green winning by decision or putting Ferguson away late.
Pick: Green
Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland
Yup, we’re talking defense again, this time of the wrestling variety.
Can Kevin Holland stop a takedown-heavy offense? Because that’s what he’ll be dealing when when he steps into the cage with Michael Chiesa. Watching Holland get trucked by Khamzat Chimaev probably wasn’t a fair gauge of how far along his wrestling defense has come along, nor should we get too hung up on his larger middleweight competition grounding and neutralizing him.
Sill, I’m skeptical.
Chiesa is a scrapper on the feet and has always had a knack for dragging his opponents to the mat. He has high fight IQ that has only grown sharper with his work as an analyst, so he’s not going to get caught up in Holland’s trash talk or his calls to keep the fight on the feet. Chiesa is going for takedowns and when he gets them, he’s going to give Holland hell on the ground.
I do like Holland’s resilience and genuinely believe he has a future as a contender at welterweight, I just don’t like this style matchup. If Holland can overcome Chiesa’s grappling though, I’ll have to take him even more seriously.
Chiesa by submission.
Pick: Chiesa
Preliminaries
Gabriel Bonfim def. Trevin Giles
Claudio Ribeiro def. Roman Kopylov
Jake Matthews def. Darrius Flowers
CJ Vergara def. Vinicius Salvador
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