UFC Vegas 62 Gambling Preview: Can Alexa Grasso Punch Her Ticket To A Flyweight Title Shot?

After taking yet another week off, the UFC returns this Saturday with UFC Vegas 62, headlined by a women’s flyweight fight between Alexa Grasso and Viviane Araujo. It’s a bit of a lackluster card (plus we lost Askar Askarov vs. Brandon Royval), so I’ve only got one straight bet this week, but with UFC 280 just around the corner, any excuse to lay some action down beforehand and build the bankroll is a welcome one. Let’s get to it.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Raphael Assuncao, +320

While this is a potentially reckless bet, the odds make it one I have to play. Yes, Assuncao is 40 years old, has lost four in a row, and hasn’t fought in 10 months, but Victor Henry is not some world beater. He’s a solid veteran who spent most of his career in Japan, he’s 35 years old, and Assuncao is the best opponent he’s ever faced. Yes, Henry looked good in his UFC debut, but Assuncao made a career out of making people exactly like Henry struggle. If Assuncao has any juice left, the line should be tighter here, so I’m taking a shot at long odds.

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Prop Bets

Alexa Grasso/Viviane Araujo Does Not Go To Decision, +150

One of my bolder bets this week, but I just have a feeling about it. The numbers don’t back me up, with nine of Grasso’s 15 wins coming by decision and Araujo going to the scorecards in six straight bouts before this, but a key difference between those fights and this one is that this is a five-rounder. Prior to their UFC stints, both Grasso and Araujo were decent finishers, and with a potential title shot on the line in this one, I think both women are coming out looking to make a statement. They may have to dip into the extra rounds to make that statement, but one of them will get the job done.

Alonzo Menifield By KO/TKO/DQ, +100

I like Menifield just fine but this bet isn’t about him, it’s about fading Misha Cirkunov. Cirkunov is 35 and has lost six of his last eight fights. That’s a really bad sign. Even worse, he’s moving back up to light heavyweight after a brief, failed attempt to make a run at 185 pounds. When a fighter starts bouncing around weight classes in search of the solution, the true answer is that he or she is simply done. I certainly think that’s the case of Cirkunov and expect Menifield to be able to keep this standing and land the power shots to put the Canadian away.

Parlay of the Week

Jonathan Martinez (-205) and Mana Martinez (-150)

I’m not above a gimmick bet, and doing the Martinez parlay is absolutely that (there’s also a Rodriguez parlay available on this card but I’m not doing that for reasons I’ll explain later). Fortunately, I also think it’s a good bet.

I love Cub Swanson, but he’s about to be 39 and he’s going to be making his bantamweight debut. There’s simply no way this ends well. Martinez is a solid fighter who should be able to outwork the past-his-prime version of “Killer Cub.”

For the other leg, Mana Martinez is showing some real promise as a prospect. He needs to shore up the wrestling, but that’s not Brandon Davis’ game, and on the feet, I think he’s cleaner and more effective. Plus, Martinez is a James Krause fighter, so I know he’ll come in with a good game plan.

Parlay these two bets together for +147 odds.

Long Shot of the Week

Mike Jackson By Decision, +1800

Let’s be clear about this, I do not think Mike Jackson is a UFC-caliber fighter (whatever that means these days). But neither is Pete Rodriguez, at least not yet. Rodriguez has four wins in his pro career, against opponents with a combined record of 7-4. He’s got a little bit of an amateur career, but still, this is a man who is incredibly raw, and even though Jackson isn’t good, Rodriguez shouldn’t be this big a favorite over anyone. I think it’s fair to take a flyer on Jackson straight at +500 on sheer principle, and a long shot on Jackson by Decision at +1800 is worth a tiny stab.

Wrap Up

Man, we are on a heater right now! We’ve been killing it for the last few months, with another winning week on our last outing. I’ll be honest, I don’t feel as confident this week as I have the last few, but let’s keep taking shots and hopefully this money train stays on the tracks.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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