UFC 302 roundtable: How does Dustin Poirier’s legacy change if he upsets Islam Makhachev?

Can Dustin Poirier finish his story?

As he rounds the final turn of an already legendary career, Poirier takes his third crack at the undisputed UFC lightweight title on June 1 when he challenges MMA’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter, Islam Makhachev, in the main event of UFC 302. The matchup headlines a pay-per-view that also features the returns of Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa, plus more.

Ahead of Poirier’s (last?) big moment, MMA Fighting’s Shaun Al-Shatti, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew sidle back up to the roundtable to preview Saturday’s return to Newark, N.J.

1. How does Dustin Poirier’s legacy change if he upsets Islam Makhachev at UFC 302?

Al-Shatti: Dustin Poirier is already an all-time great. If his career ended tomorrow, he’d still be remembered in that way. His peak UFC run spanned multiple eras of athletes and he outlasted the majority of his contemporaries. He’s undoubtedly on the Lightweight All-Action First Team, and his résumé quite literally stands up to any 155-pound fighter who has ever laced up a pair of four-ounce gloves. For real, compare this hit list — Max Holloway (x2), Conor McGregor (x2), Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje, Bobby Green, Jim Miller, Anthony Pettis, Dan Hooker, Michael Chandler, Benoit Saint Denis, Diego Ferreira — to any lightweight ever, and Poirier has a good case for coming out ahead. We dove deep into this topic after Poirier murked Saint Denis at UFC 299, but if you compare wins historically, Poirier is already comfortably a top-10 lightweight all-time — and for me, he’s in the top five.

Poirier’s biggest historical fault is obviously the lack of undisputed gold in his trophy case, but he also had the misfortune of competing in eras dominated by the two men who may — once all is said and done — go down as the two greatest lightweights to ever do it, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev. If Poirier’s fate is to be the Charles Barkley or Karl Malone to Dagestan’s dual Michael Jordans, well, there’s certainly tougher ways to live.

But that’s why UFC 302 is so inherently riveting. Very rarely are we presented with a fight that could so fundamentally transform a divisional pantheon overnight. Poirier is already all of these things without a signature moment of championship glory. If he marches into Newark and jumps a gilly on Makhachev and steals away a title as a 5-to-1 underdog in his potential swan song? Not only would UFC 302 rocket to the top of the list as a 1A to Michael Bisping’s 1B in all-time feel-good moments, but the weight of Poirier’s towering résumé combined with an upset of that magnitude would instantly lock him into top-three consideration on the lightweight GOAT list alongside Nurmagomedov and the O.G. B.J. Penn (yes, he belongs, kids; do your research) — and really, probably into the top two.

How many fighters can we levy these kinds of stakes upon 14 years into their UFC runs?

Esther Lin, MMA Fighting

Heck: There’s not much to add to what my esteemed colleague already said. Poirier’s legacy is as rock solid as it gets. Even if he goes out and gets run over by Islam Makhachev, it changes very little. He’s a top-10 fighter in the history of MMA’s best division (and one of the toughest divisions in all of sports). He’s done the thing, secured the bag, he’s fought his absolute ass off, and on one of the funniest days since I began covering the sport, he even used the power of Twitter to back the UFC into a corner to get what’s his before thumping up Benoit Saint Denis at UFC 299. Not to mention, he’s one of the top must-watch fighters in UFC history. Winning this title, at least to me, is icing on a perfectly baked cake.

What a UFC 302 victory would do is provide one of, if not the biggest “Remember where, remember when” moments in the history of mixed martial arts. We will remember where we were, what the date was, the meal we ate before it happened, the beverage of choice, and every other detail there could possibly be. It would be the most feel-good story in the history of the sport — not because Makhachev is this evil fighter (heck, he’s the best fighter on planet Earth right now, without question) — but because we have been along on this ride with Poirier since 2011, thanks in large part to the Fightville documentary.

A lot of us have grown up in this sport with Poirier. He’s one of the few fighters that let the world in from the very beginning, and to see him go through everything that he’s gone through since we were introduced to him, to cap it all off with one of the most shocking title wins I’ve ever seen, would be surreal, to say the least.

When the Boston Red Sox won the World Series in 2004, I sat at a high-top table at J.J. Grimsby’s in Stoneham, MA, with two of my brothers, a couple of losing Keno slips (plus a winning one that paid for the night), wearing a beer-stained Pedro Martinez t-shirt. Those are just a few of the many details I remember from that fateful October night. If Poirier slays the beast and wins the lightweight title at UFC 302 — and if you’re longtime UFC and MMA fan — you will be able to share those kinds of details 20 years later as well.

Meshew: While both of my colleagues are correct in saying that this is a huge fight for Poirier, I think they undersell just how important a win on Saturday would be. There are very few fighters in the history of MMA who have had more on the line in a single fight than Poirier does against Makhachev.

At this moment, Poirier is probably a top-10 lightweight all-time. But I can only say probably because lightweight is the best division in the sport, and in history. There nearly 15 dudes out there with legitimate claims towards top-10 status. And while we love and respect and venerate Poirier for being awesome, he’s closer to the bottom of that 10 than the top. Which means that as 155 pounds keeps rolling on, his position in the top-10 becomes ever more tenuous. A win over Makhachev instantly changes that. Suddenly, Poirier is locked into the top-five, and it would take something pretty epic to unseat him. That’s a huge swing.

If Poirier loses, he may retire, and then in the not-too-distant future there will be swaths of MMA fans who don’t know him and more great lightweights will rise who have résumés that move him down the list. Or he pulls of one of the greatest upsets of all-time, the greatest feel-good moment in MMA history, and etches himself on the lightweight Mount Rushmore. Those are really the only two futures, and I struggle to think of any other fighter who has had such a gap between outcomes.

2. Who needs a co-headlining win more, Sean Strickland or Paulo Costa?

Al-Shatti: Strickland and Costa have two of the biggest followings in the UFC middleweight division, so while a loss may be detrimental, it’s not as if Saturday is some do-or-die situation for either man. That being said, Costa almost certainly needs a good showing more. The spearhead of secret juice has sneakily been a somewhat lacking fighter over the past half-decade. Since late 2019, Costa is just 1-3 in four octagon appearances. That’s obviously not what you want, but it’s actually a worse run than his record shows. Over that time, Costa has: 1) Gotten utterly embarrassed and emasculated in his lone title challenge; 2) Shown up to fight week at 218 pounds for a 186-pound bout and unapologetically refused to do anything but cut down to light heavyweight; 3) Either withdrawn or flat-out refused to fight in five previously announced bouts, including one on just 10 days’ notice; 4) Stagnated so long that he no longer owns a win over any fighter currently under UFC employment.

Costa has largely mitigated that lack of success by being a wildly entertaining dude both inside the cage and out, but at some point you need to win before you’re relegated to “fun fight” territory. Costa isn’t there yet, but if he loses once again at UFC 302 — and looks bad doing so — he could be barrelling toward that crossroads quicker than expected. Strickland, on the other hand, was MMA Fighting’s 2023 Fighter of the Year and just four months ago came within a hair’s breadth of defending his UFC middleweight title.

If the question is who needs it more, the answer is probably the guy who hasn’t had a relevant win in five years rather than the one coming off the best stretch of his career.

Heck: It’s Paulo Costa, and it’s not particularly close.

The Costa career retrospective documentary is going to be incredible. Talk about experiencing the highest of highs, the lowest of lows, the good, the bad, and the controversial — and he’s only 33. “The Eraser” will fight for the second time in a year for the first time since 2017. Yes, you read that right — either one or zero fights from 2018 and on. Plus, as Shaun notes above, Costa got thumped up in the bad-memorable way by Israel Adesanya in the “Wine-gate” championship fight, plus the whole Marvin Vettori fiasco, but just when everyone started to give up on him, Costa goes out and has a wild brawl with Luke Rockhold, wins, and then gives Robert Whittaker one hell of an effort at UFC 298 in February. Costa seems locked in, so we’re flirting with “now-or-never” time in regards to getting back to a title shot.

The other reason? Strickland is so over with the fans that even if he loses his next three fights, he’s not going to be out of the title conversation. He has some sort of history with just about every fighter who could be holding gold over the next year or two. Costa is popular, but he’s not at the Strickland level.

Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

Meshew: I fully expect my colleagues to argue that Paulo Costa needs this win more. After all, he doesn’t fight that often, and has no wins over currently employed UFC fighters. That’s an easy case to make. But it’s incorrect. Sean Strickland needs this win more.

As unbelievable as it still is to me, Strickland is a former UFC middleweight champion and one of the more popular fighters in the promotion. If you had told me that would be the case three years ago, I’d have laughed in your face. And yet, it’s true. Through hard work, a bit of luck, and the increasing amount of MMA fans who look toward grievance politics for cultural validation, Strickland has righteously become a champion and star. Credit to him. Most fighters do neither, much less both. But here’s the thing, he has a tenuous hold on the stardom piece of things, and it needs wins to keep it alive.

Strickland is not a star because he’s the most exciting fighter in the world or because he has an ardent and unwavering built in fan base (think the Irish and Conor McGregor). He’s a star because he’s said incendiary stuff that a certain segment of the fan base loves, and he won fights. But the winning is a critical component, because the schtick doesn’t work if you’re a loser. Strickland said all the same shit for years now, and prior to 2023, people just talked about him getting slabbed by Alex Pereira.

When the fans aren’t there for who you are as a person, and they’re there for what you represent, the gimmick only works if you’re winning. “I also think women belong in the kitchen, but some piece of me recognizes that my dreams didn’t pan out and I’m just a middle manager in a company I hate, working for someone 10 years my junior. But that guy? He’s a champion! He is good and has these ideas, thus they must be good — and I, who also has them, must be good as well.” But when that dude loses, well, who cares? Someone round up all the Jacob Volkmann fans out there still repping Barack Obama’s biggest fan. I’ll wait.

So sure, Paulo Costa needs the win. All fighters need to win. But when Costa loses, it won’t matter. He’s spent the majority of this decade losing and he’s still a top-ranked middleweight that demands attention, because people love or hate him for who he is. But if Strickland loses, suddenly his back is against the wall, because the same folks rushing to his defense for his unprofessional behavior and abhorrent views will abandon him just as quickly as they adopted him.

3. What is UFC 304’s best fight after the top two bouts?

Heck: Since I get top billing here, I’ll go chalk, mostly because there’s just no way this fight is going to stink. Kevin Holland is back to doing Kevin Holland things — back at middleweight, announced for a fight that takes place less than a month after it’s reveal, and where stakes don’t really matter that much.

I’ve said this for quite some time: Holland is very Derrick Lewis-esque, because he goes beyond rankings, wins and losses, and other things fighters are known for. Holland just wants to get in there, make his money, be as exciting as possible, and then go home — with some entertaining banter along the way to boot. He has the perfect opponent in Michal Oleksiejczuk, who likes to get after it and throw caution to the wind. This will be the perfect table-setter for the two five-rounders because someone is going to sleep, quickly!

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Al-Shatti: Man, it’s tough sledding out here. I know they can’t all be UFC 300, but sheesh, this undercard just isn’t very inspiring. I suppose I’ll venture down the same road as Mike and pick the only heavyweight bout of the card, Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov, a matchup between two big boys who at one point or another were both One Of My Guys™.

We’re light years away from the great Romanov Renaissance of 2021, when I and another unnamed gentlemen on this panel championed the Moldovan mauler as heavyweight’s next great contender, but that doesn’t mean I’ve completely lost faith. If Romanov can regain some of the discipline he showed before he ballooned back up another 30 pounds for his last few fights, Romanov, 33, is still plenty young enough to make moves in the heavyweight division. (He admitted as much this past July after beating Blagoy Ivanov, citing “terrible things” in his personal life that temporarily blew him off course.)

Similarly, I’m not ready to jump off the Jailton Almeida bandwagon just because he suffered his first UFC loss to arguably one of his toughest stylistic matchups in the whole damn world. Is Almeida big enough to impose his will against the true elite heavyweights of the division? It’s not crazy to have doubts after watching him struggle to hurt Curtis Blaydes (and to a lesser extent, Derrick Lewis), but it’s much too early to sell off my stock just yet.

Romanov and Almeida are both quality tests for the issues both face in their current heavyweight climbs, so sign me up for this little slice of just-right UFC matchmaking.

Meshew: Mike is definitely correct with his choice, as Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk is going to be bananas — just a full-on car crash, but with director’s commentary as Holland will be chatting away through the entire fight.

On the other hand, Shaun going with an Alexander Romanov fight is certainly a choice, and this is coming from a man who previous drove the “King Kong” bandwagon. That fight is going to be the worst kind of grappling match where one dude gets on top and sits there for the entire round, repeat three times.

No, the proper answer — if we’re trying to be more creative than just choosing the featured fight of the evening — is Randy Brown vs. Zaleski dos Santos.

Brown is the classic case of a talented fighter on the cusp of breaking out into a contender, who keeps falling short at the worst times. But when “Rude Boy” is cooking, the man is firing up a top-of-the-line Traeger with the high-end hickory pellets. Just ask Muslim Salikhov and Warlley Alves.

Similarly, Zaleski dos Santos has been a fringe top-15 fighter for half a decade, but couldn’t ever quite make the leap. But he’s been fun as hell to watch try. “ZDS” has three Fight of the Night bonuses and a litany of awesome highlights. Remember when he wheel-kicked Sean Strickland out of the welterweight division? Or how about right after that when he sent Luigi Vendramini on the express boat down the river Styx? Or how about when he beat everything other than consciousness out of Benoit Saint-Denis?

Brown and dos Santos are two dudes who get down in violent fashion, and they’re gonna do so come Saturday night.