UFC 297 Paths To Victory: How Sean Strickland And Dricus Du Plessis Can Leave Toronto With Middleweight Gold

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The UFC is back in Toronto!

On Saturday, Sean Strickland defends his middleweight title against Dricus du Plessis in the main event of UFC 297 at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. This is Strickland’s first title defense since taking the belt from Israel Adesanya at UFC 293 and the two men enter with a healthy amount of bad blood, stemming from a heated press conference in December.

How will each man approach this fight, and how do they take home the win? Let’s take a look.

Table of Contents

Paths to Victory for Sean Strickland at UFC 297

Against all odds, somehow we are here: Sean Strckland is defending a UFC title. Those are certainly words I never thought I’d write, but they’re true, and what’s more, he deserves it.

Strickland’s performance against Adesanya to claim the middleweight title is one of the most remarkable in recent memory. A massive underdog, facing one of the greatest strikers in the history of the sport, Strickland went into Sydney and made “The Last Stylebender” quit. Sure, he didn’t get a stoppage, but check the tape. With seconds ticking down in the final round of a fight that he was undeniably behind in, Adesanya wilted. Instead of trying to surge forward for a last-minute Hail Mary to save face and his title, Adesanya gave ground while Strickland screamed in his face and beckoned him on. It was a jarring performance, and what made it all the more remarkable is that Strickland did it all with an extremely bare-bones game.

For years, no one could figure out how to beat Adesanya (unless you have a nuclear missile in each fist and are also a world-class kickboxer like Alex Pereira), but Strickland did it easily by doing what he always does: Marching forward behind jabs and teeps, cutting the cage with relentless forward pressure. Adesanya had no answer to it, especially as Strickland’s awkward Philly shell defense kept him safe from single-shot counters, and he slowly faltered under the pressure. If Strickland hopes to retain the title, he has to do the same to du Plessis.

Fortunately for Strickland, he should be able to do so. Du Plessis does not fight off the back foot the same way Adesanya does, but you can press him back with offense. In particular, du Plessis defaults to a high guard and disengaging when opponents press him, which really opens up Strickland to throw in combination. Strickland’s best offense comes when opponents allow him to string together punches, and du Plessis will oblige as he looks to retreat. Pouring it on in these exchanges and then evading the big, single countershot that will come back is pretty much exactly how Strickland wants to go about business.

But Strickland’s biggest opportunity is in attacking the body. For one thing, Strickland’s best weapon is his cardio; du Plessis remains suspect in that area. Ripping the body will only exacerbate his greatest advantage, and given how rarely du Plessis even throws counters — preferring instead to reset the engagement — it’s a pretty safe avenue to fight in. More importantly though, like Denny’s, du Plessis’s body always open. Du Plessis operates with a high guard, and when pressed, he blocks and retreats. Teeps to the body and shots under the high elbows should be readily available nearly all fight long. Those shots broke Adesanya and they can break du Plessis given the chance. If Strickland can consistently back du Plessis up and attack to the body, the battle is all but won.

Paths to victory for Dricus du Plessis at UFC 297

If there are two more different fighters who are somehow very much the same, I’m not sure who they are. While Strickland is all volume and pressure and cardio, du Plessis is all volume and pressure and physicality. He is a hulking middleweight who excels at imposing his mass on opponents in brutal and violent fashion. To put it more plainly, if Strickland is death by 1,000 cuts, du Plessis is death by 1,000 ax swings.

Like Strickland, du Plessis prefers to be the one coming forward, though he’s not as adept at pressuring as the champion is. He struggled to corner Robert Whittaker in his most recent fight, as “Bobby Knuckles” darted around the cage and pot-shotted him. For a traditionally fast starter, du Plessis couldn’t get much going early because he simply couldn’t find Whittaker. But after adjusting to Whittaker’s plan, du Plessis solved that problem by simply grabbing him and chucking to the floor, where he proceeded to beat the life and agility out of Whittaker. He can do the same to Strickland.

We don’t think of du Plessis as a traditional top position grappler because he’s happy to swing hammers on the feet and he’s not a traditional shot-based wrestler, but ground-and-pound is by far the best aspect of his game. Du Plessis is a demon on top, with the ability to pass guard easily and batter the bejesus out of you while he does it. This is definitely du Plessis’ best path to victory and one I expect him to pursue early and often in this fight. Strickland is a fine grappler and a good defensive wrestler, but du Plessis has a number of good attacks from the clinch, and once he’s on top, I don’t think Strickland is getting up, at least not without absorbing some big shots.

On the feet, I expect to see du Plessis look for one big kill shot, and perhaps use that to create tie-ups, but I think there are a few other interesting ideas he could pursue. The first is kicking the legs — not just the lead, but the rear. Strickland does this awkward march forward where he raises the lead leg off the ground as a check for kicks, a counter he’s adopted to mitigate the weaknesses of his plodding, boxing heavy style. When he does this, he’s standing entirely on his rear leg, and so chopping away at that is a nasty bit of business. It’s a harder kick to throw, requiring more setup, but given the payoff and the relative lack of power coming back at him from Strickland, one that I think could be worth it.

On a similar note, du Plessis should really utilize his feints in this fight. Against Adesanya in particular, Strickland was quick to parry any movement, either with his hands or lifting the front leg. Strickland has to respect du Plessis’ power, so leading with feints should open up better chances to find the big shots he wants.

Most importantly though, du Plessis simply cannot back up. Strickland’s game does not work in reverse, so simply don’t accept anything else. If du Plessis can get Strickland backing up, then he’s won the fight already — and if he can’t, then the two will simply collide in the center of the cage, opening up clinch and grappling opportunities for du Plessis. To win this fight, du Plessis needs to draw a line in the sand and never go back over it.

X-Factor

How will the build-up affect the fight?

Prior to December, I don’t think anyone believed either Strickland or du Plessis had a major issue with each other. But then came the press conference, the trash talk, and the brawl at UFC 296. Since then, there’s been more trash talk, emotional interviews, and even more pressure built onto Strickland’s shoulders. This week it seems like Strickland and du Plessis have buried the hatchet, but Strickland has always been a loose cannon and who knows what is really going on with him?

The fact is, in 2023, Strickland had nothing to lose. There were minimal expectations and his Cinderella journey to the title was entirely shocking. Now, though, he’s in the spotlight and the weight of the world is on his shoulders. In response to this, he’s lashing out at reporters and generally behaving like a man who doesn’t quite have it all together. Du Plessis, meanwhile, is carrying himself like someone who already has the title, even if it’s not on his person at the moment.

A lot of people hate armchair psychology, and truth be told, it is often dead wrong. This could be one of those instances. But the last time Strickland came into a fight with this sort of pressure and attention, it was against another guy who was preternaturally calm and clobbers people, and we all saw the performance Strickland had against Alex Pereira that night. For some reason, I can’t get it out of my head as UFC 297 approaches.

Prediction

One of the things that makes this matchup so compelling is that each man’s strengths seem to line up perfectly against the other person’s weaknesses. That being said, I favor du Plessis to get his hand raised for two key reasons. First, he’s a very fast starter and Strickland is not (even his team expected to lose the first 10 minutes against Adesanya). Du Plessis may well finish this fight before Strickland can really get rolling. And second, du Plessis can finish the fight. In close matchups like this one, I’m always going to favor the fighter who finishes people, because of simple math. If one fighter can finish and the other can’t, then the Decision Merchant needs 25 minutes of perfection, which is a lot to ask.

Dricus du Plessis def. Sean Strickland via TKO (punches) — 4:23, Round 2.

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