UFC 295 roundtable: Will the real champions please stand up?

UFC 295 sees the coronation of two new titleholders.

Assuming that neither this Saturday’s main nor co-main event end in a draw or no-contest (a shaky assumption to make given everything that’s happened over the past 10 months), we could be taking one step closer to stability in the UFC’s heaviest divisions. In the main event, former light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka and former middleweight champion Alex Pereira battle for the vacant 205-pound title, while Sergei Pavlovich duels Tom Aspinall for interim heavyweight gold in the co-main event.

The road to UFC 295 was a winding one, with the light heavyweight title being vacated twice and now thrice being contested with no incumbent champion, while Pavlovich and Aspinall were only called into action after an injury forced Jon Jones out of a highly anticipated headlining matchup with Stipe Miocic.

MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, Steven Marrocco, and Shaun Al-Shatti pull up to the roundtable to analyze the revised Madison Square Garden lineup and figure out what — if any — answers will be gleaned from fight night.

1. Will Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira bring order to the light heavyweight division?

Al-Shatti: I suppose that depends on what we mean by order. If the question is whether the booking of Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira finally puts the UFC belt back into the hands of the rightful No. 1 light heavyweight in the world, the answer is an unequivocal yes. Prochazka has been that top dog in my eyes since June 2022, when he and Glover Teixeira lit the world afire with one of the wildest spectacles the octagon has ever seen. The merry-go-round of bat-s***ery we’ve ridden since then has only been a diversion that’s left the UFC light heavyweight strap feeling more like a prop than ever. Consider this: There’s been three straight vacant title bouts since the last time a 205-pound champ had an opportunity for a title defense. That’s absurd, so hopefully UFC 295 represents an end to a very dumb era.

But if the question we’re addressing is whether Prochazka vs. Pereira brings long-awaited stability to the light heavyweight division — I mean, do you realize the forces we’re working against here? Prochazka and Pereira are two of the preeminent chaos agents in the entire damn UFC! Both men are volatility personified. It’s why UFC 295’s main event has been my most-anticipated fight of 2023 since the moment it was first booked (please, MMA gods, please), but it’s also why it’d be foolish to predict UFC 295 as the start of a long title reign.

Light heavyweight is simply too broken right now for one fight to fix it. The former champ (Jamahal Hill) remains in limbo, the other two viable contenders (Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker) are stuck waiting on a rematch, another ex-champ (Jan Blachowicz) can’t catch a break to save his life, and the only new name of the bunch (Aleksandar Rakic) hasn’t been seen since May 2022. None of that inspires confidence for UFC 295 to finally break The Curse™. But Prochazka vs. Pereira going off without a hitch would certainly be a good start — and right now, that’s all light heavyweight can realistically ask for. Baby steps.

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Heck: The only answer I can come up with here is, God, I hope so! To say this division has been snakebitten over the last year would be a massive understatement. Prochazka winning the light heavyweight title in an all-time battle against Teixeira seemed to be a passing of the torch in a way — and then Prochazka got injured and was no longer the champion, leading to a vacant title fight between Blachowicz and Ankalaev that just added to the strangeness of Ankalaev’s run as of late as the fight ended in a draw.

Then Jamahal Hill stepped in to face Teixeira in Brazil and had the performance of his career, yet there were still many questions that needed to be answered by “Sweet Dreams,” and I, for one, was excited to possibly get those — and then Hill got injured, and now here we are with Prochazka’s return against Pereira, who could become a two-division UFC world champion in just his 11th pro fight. That’s ridiculous. Oh yeah, not to mention that potential No. 1 contender fight between Ankalaev and Johnny Walker that ended in a no-contest two weeks ago.

My hope is the winner of this fight can come out unscathed enough to face Hill whenever he’s ready to return. Hill against either Prochazka or Pereira would be must-watch television, and despite Hill having issues with the MMA Fighting Global Rankings, that fight would determine the undisputed light heavyweight champ. Guys, that’s a world I want to live in.

Marrocco: Think of Saturday’s vacant title bout as a two-part series, like Godfather I and II (and pretend Godfather III didn’t happen). First the new don is crowned, and then he faces the boss of a rival family in a battle for control of the underworld. Whatever happens on Saturday night, the decision to make Prochazka and Hill vacate the belt has created an alternate timeline that needs to be satisfied. But will it?

As Shaun noted, we’re really tempting the MMA gods by putting Prochazka, a guy who doesn’t exactly scream technical striking, against one of the more prolific strikers of his generation in Pereira. This game is so fickle, and if there’s any moment that seems ripe to be ruined, it’s that logical matchup between Prochazka, champ No. 1, against Hill, champ No. 2, later this year.

Tournaments solve this kind of problem, and in a way, you can think about all the drama surrounding the 205-pound division as a weird, Bellator-like journey where champs are crowned, alternates shock, and somebody wins a bunch of money at the end. Things are still way too chaotic to declare the true champion by the end of this weekend, but we’re a step closer to it.

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2. Will the UFC 295 co-main event winner still be heavyweight champion this time next year?

Lee: Mark your calendars, because Nov. 11 marks the dawning of a new era in the heavyweight division.

It sure would have been swell to see Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic handle their business while Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall were given proper time to walk their own championship path, but this is the hand we’ve all been dealt, and either Pavlovich or Aspinall will have a shiny trophy by night’s end. They’ll also be setting the stage for what should be a successful run at the top, whether we’re talking about the hulking Russian or the affable Englishman.

If Pavlovich wins, he’ll become the new boogeyman of the UFC, and just on physique alone, he’ll be an easy sell as “The Baddest Man on the Planet (Not Named Francis Ngannou).” If Aspinall wins, the UFC has itself another British star to headline pay-per-views when they head across the pond. Both big men are in their relative primes, too, meaning there’s plenty of intriguing matchups ahead for either of them.

As for whether they can hold on to the title for another 12 months, I like their chances even if one of them ends up having to fight Jones. The former light heavyweight king might be the greatest fighter of all time, but time waits for no man, and he’ll be the older and smaller man in the cage should he choose to take on one of these next-gen heavies. Victory in the land of the giants is anything but guaranteed for “Bones.”

By the way, all of this is contingent on Jailton Almeida not getting a title shot anytime soon. Because if he does, then the UFC 295 co-main event winner’s reign isn’t making it to next November.

Heck: I’m going to say no, and that’s because since the light heavyweight division will find some normalcy for the first time in a while, heavyweight will catch full-on the contagious virus of weirdness.

Now, if the question is, “Will the winner of this co-main event still be interim champion?” My answer is yes. I’m cautiously optimistic that we do end up getting Jones vs. Miocic for the heavyweight title next year, and while I’ve been on record saying both guys are going to retire – or at the very least, take a sabbatical – at the conclusion of that fight, if Jones wins, and I’m picking him to do so, I feel like he’ll end up milking this one a bit. Had this fight happened on Saturday as planned, that may not have been my answer, but the potential delay has changed things a little bit for me.

Jones fought in March. This fight with Miocic was scheduled eight months later. If this Jones-Miocic fight happens at International Fight Week in July, do we think Jones would turn around and fight again before the end of the year? He may say it, but I’m not so sure he actually would.

If Pavlovich wins, it would sort of depend on how he did it. If the powerful puncher isn’t tested in the wrestling department at all and just lands those lunchboxes for a quick finish, perhaps Jones would be intrigued enough to test that wrestling get-up game out if it’s a fight that can sell. If Aspinall pulls this off on 12 days’ notice, his star power rises in a big way, perhaps compelling Jones to stick around in an attempt to cash in on another big fight. Jones, if anything else, is a prize fighter, and a unification bout with Aspinall could do very, very well in early 2025. I’m going with weird to even weirder for the heavyweight division in ‘24.

Marrocco: I think there’s a very strong chance, mainly because than Miocic appears to be the last and most logical check mark on Jon Jones’ list of career accomplishments. Defend the heavyweight title, establish yourself as champion of a second division over the most successful champ in that division’s history, and “Bones” walks into the sunset. Or let’s say Miocic does the unthinkable and hands Jones his first real professional loss. I don’t see him sticking around for the same reason as his opponent – no need to prove oneself against another general of up-and-comers that offer only downside late in the career.

Before injuries interceded, the word was that both Jones and Miocic were going to hang it up, and I have no reason to think either one of them will reverse course on that and decide that beating either Aspinall or Pavlovich is critical to their legacy. That hay is already in the barn, so to speak.

Now, it’s a separate issue of whether or not UFC 295’s co-headliners will remain a champion if Miocic, Jones, or even Almeida are in the picture. If they are, I would say it’s far less of a lock, especially if it’s Jones. That guy doesn’t doesn’t lose – unless Steve Mazzagatti has something to say about it. And the way Almeida looked this past Saturday, I agree with AK that if he gets his hands on a title shot, it’s a big problem for whomever faces him for the title.

3. Which storyline outside of the top two fights has you most intrigued?

Lee: To put it kindly, UFC 295 isn’t the deepest pay-per-view that the promotion has brought to New York State, so outside of the top two fights you really have to look at one of the next two to find a compelling hook. But as far as hooks go, Mackenzie Dern vs. Jessica Andrade is pretty great!

Dern has been touted as a future title challenger since she crossed over from the world of Brazilian jiu-jitsu back in 2016. It’s been a rocky ride for the grappling ace with weigh-cut issues and several key losses to fellow contenders. Still, it’s always felt like she’s just one good win streak away from finding her groove and convincing the matchmakers to throw her into the championship picture.

Enter Andrade. The two-division threat has little to prove in her fighting career after previously holding the UFC strawweight title and once challenging for flyweight gold, but she continues to chug away, taking on all comers at any weight at any time, recently to her detriment. “Bate Estaca” has lost three straight and not looked particularly competitive in any of those contests, so this feels like a do-or-die moment for the future UFC Hall of Famer.

Dern’s strength of schedule has been overlooked over the past few years and her UFC losses are all to ranked opponents: Yan Xiaonan, Marina Rodriguez, and Amanda Ribas. We know she can hang with the best of them. Scoring a signature win over Andrade under the bright lights of MSG would prove she can actually beat them too.

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Al-Shatti: Rankings, shmankings. You know what I like? Fun. And you know sounds like a whole lot of fun? A couple of lightweight Tasmanian devils trying their damndest to tear each other’s faces off.

That’s exactly what we’re getting with Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint Denis. Two get-or-get-got fighters whose combined past eight fights haven’t gone past the 10-minute mark. Frevola has been a first-round wrecking ball since being on the receiving end of the fastest finish in UFC lightweight history. Suddenly, three straight knockouts of Genaro Valdez, Ottman Azaitar, and Drew Freakin’ Dober (!!!) has “The Steamrolla” on the precipice of becoming a real Guy Who Matters in the shark tank that is 155 pounds. And hell, Saint Denis may already be there — four consecutive stoppages of Niklas Stolze, Gabriel Miranda, Ismael Bonfim, and Thiago Moises has the 27-year-old looking like the first genuine threat to the lightweight throne France has ever produced.

Every good UFC pay-per-view needs the all-action-all-the-time matchup that gets the blood pumping for the casuals before we get to the real goods.

UFC 295 certainly has that box checked.