UFC 290 Gambling Preview: Will Yair Rodriguez pull off the upset over Alexander Volkanovski?

It’s International Fight Week, which means it’s time for one of the biggest cards of the year, and the UFC delivers that on Saturday in Las Vegas with UFC 290.

In the main event, Alexander Volkanovski defends his featherweight title against interim champion Yair Rodriguez. In the co-main event, flyweight champion Brandon Moreno defends his title against Alexandre Pantoja, and in the featured bout of the evening, Robert Whittaker defends his place as the best non-Israel Adesanya middleweight in the UFC when he takes on Dricus du Plessis. Plus, there are nearly a dozen other fights too boot! It’s a lot of action, so let’s jump right into the best bets for this week.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Straight Bets

Dricus du Plessis, +310

Given the overwhelming public sentiment that Robert Whittaker is going to run roughshod over du Plessis on Saturday, I’m a bit surprised the line is this close. But that just tells me Vegas knows better than the internet: DDP has a legitimate shot to win this fight.

Du Plessis is hell on wheels. The man is not the most technical fighter in the world, but what he lacks in finesse, he more than makes up for in willingness and aggression. During his UFC run, that’s seem him have moments of duress against lesser fighters than Whittaker, but it’s also seen him power through though same fighters and ultimately stop them. Robert Whittaker is one of the best fighters in the world, but he’s been doing this a long time, he’s got a lot of miles on him, and this is only a three round fight. There is absolutely a world where du Plessis comes out with insane pace and aggression and simply takes the first two rounds by trying really hard. Then he only needs to hold out for five minutes to sneak away a win, and set up a massive middleweight title fight with Adesanya.

Robbie Lawler, +200

If this really is it for the long and illustrious career of Robbie Lawler (I hope it is), then there is no way in hell I’m not betting him in his final fight. Yes, he’s 41 and well beyond his best years, but Niko Price is exactly the sort of wild, limited fighter that a man with Lawler’s veteran savvy can find a way to overcome, riding off into the sunset in fantastic fashion.

Jimmy Crute, -130

In a rematch of their draw from February, Crute and Alonzo Menifield run it back on Saturday in the prelims, but I think things will go much better for Crute this time. In the first encounter, Crute nearly got finished early, but battled back and had Menifield in all sorts of trouble with submissions, and I think that’s the texture of this fight. Menifield is always dangerous, but Crute is durable enough to survive, and his advantage on the floor is huge. Add in that Crute is still young and improving while Menifield is on the tail end of his best years, and I like Crute’s chances.

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Prop Bets

Yair Rodriguez by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission, +450

I did a full write-up of this fight that you can read here, but the short version is that I think Rodriguez’s explosive dynamism is exactly the sort of style needed to upset the champion. Rodriguez’s length, kicking game, and power pose real threats to the champion and at almost 35, Volkanovski is soon to start declining, if he hasn’t already. That little drop off is enough for one piece of dynamic offense to kick over the apple card.

Brandon Moreno by Decision, +150

I know Pantoja already has beaten Moreno twice, but those fights happened over five years ago. They practically have no bearing on this matchup. Both men have improved since then and Moreno in particular is like a whole new fighter. And that’s what this comes down to for me. I think Moreno is the best flyweight in the world, capable of aggressive, violent offense, good wrestling, and excellent scrambling ability. Pantoja presents a predatory grappling game and solid striking, but I like Moreno to avoid getting his back taken and to outwork the challenger on the feet. Normally I would think Moreno could get a finish, given his offensive output, but Pantoja has never been stopped. That durability leads me to the Decision prop.

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Parlay of the Week

Jalin Turner, -285

I’m about as high on Turner as you can get. Still on 28-years-old and coming off a competitive split decision loss to one of the best fighters in the world (Mateusz Gamrot), Turner is now facing a Dan Hooker who has struggled mightily over the past few years. Hooker is unlikely to replicate the takedown heavy game plan of Gamrot and so he will be striking with Turner who is bigger, stronger, and much more dangerous in that realm. Should be a good night for Turner.

Jack Della Maddalena, -950

It was much more fun when JDM was going to fight Sean Brady in a phenomenal welterweight scrap, instead of taking on newcomer Josiah Harrell on short notice. Oh well. Harrell is wildly outmatched in this one, so even though the odds are long, might as well dump him in the parlay.

Bo Nickal, -2800

Is this smart gambling? Maybe not. But Nickal is obviously going to win this fight, and every little bit helps to get that final number down.

Cameron Saaiman, -540

This is a setup fight for Saaiman who at only 22-years-old figures to be a longterm plan for the UFC at bantamweight. Terrence Mitchell has some wins on the regional scene, but none of those are over good opposition, and Saaiman has the sort of dangerous striking that should be a huge problem for Mitchell.

Parlay these four bets together for -120 odds.

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Longshot of the Week

Dricus du Plessis by Decision, +1100

In general I don’t like to double up on fights, but I’ll make an exception here, because the odds for this one are way out of whack. Sure, DDP only has one decision win in his entire career, but he’s going up against Robert Whittaker. The only man to stop Whittaker in the past decade has been Israel Adesanya, and DDP is not Izzy. If DDP wins, I think the most likely scenario is a decision where he wins the first two rounds and Whittaker can’t come back, so I like a flyer at this price.

Wrap Up

There are plenty of other bets you could talk me into, including Jack Della Maddalena by KO in Round 1 (-165) and Bo Nickal by submission in Round 1 (-190), but trying to keep things a little tighter since I’m taking some big underdog swings this week. Hopefully it works out.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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