Roundtable: Who should be next to challenge Islam Makhachev?

Islam Makhachev has been poised for a lengthy run at the top since winning a vacant lightweight title this past October. Now he just needs challengers.

A clash with Alexander Volkanovski in February was huge for Makhachev’s budding legacy (though his narrow decision win certainly left some unconvinced), but since then he’s been on hold as he awaits what we all expect to be his next booking at UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi on Oct. 21. That’s a long time out of action for MMA Fighting’s No. 1 Pound-for-Pound fighter and much has changed in the lightweight landscape since that first title defense.

Charles Oliveira bounced back. Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier are set to collide once more in the main event of UFC 291. Volkanovski has mentioned wanting another shot at Makhachev. And The Ultimate Fighter 31 coaches Michael Chandler and Conor McGregor aren’t out of the equation.

Abu Dhabi is just four months away, so we should expect to see an official announcement soon. Until that happens, it’s anyone’s guess who faces off with Makhachev next, so MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Damon Martin, and Jed Meshew put their matchmaking caps on to figure out what matchup we’ll see in the UFC 294 main event.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC

Charles Oliveira

Lee: The No. 1 contender has a name! And his name is… you know the rest.

OK, that may not have the same ring as Charles Oliveira’s oft-repeated boast, but it’s what he is right now if the UFC matchmakers have any sense. Simply put, Oliveira is the best lightweight in the world not named Islam Makhachev. And he deserves a second chance to face Makhachev for the top spot.

There was certainly no debate in their first meeting. Makhachev outclassed Oliveira in every aspect of the game before submitting him in the second round, completing a coronation that was forecasted by several pundits (including our own Jed Meshew). As thrilling as Oliveira’s run was, Makhachev made it look like “do Bronx” was just holding the title for him.

But Oliveira should be rewarded for his risk-taking, which was fully on display both on his run to the title and during his two* successful defenses (*I know, I know, he missed weight). UFC President Dana White is always going on and on about wanting fighters who refuse to leave it in the hands of the judges and no one fits that description better than Oliveira, the UFC record holder for both the most finishes and the most submissions. Win or lose, White knows that he’s guaranteed a compelling main event, and you know he lives to impress his pals in Abu Dhabi.

Putting aside the entertainment factor, Oliveira’s resume is nearly unimpeachable. If we’re talking about Justin Gaethje or Dustin Poirier or Michael Chandler possibly getting the title shot, well, those guys were three wins before Beneil Dariush. And he finished them all. Makhachev doesn’t need a fresh name next, he needs the guy who is the clear-cut, second-best lightweight in the world and that’s Charles Oliveira. Even Makhachev’s pal, Daniel Cormier thinks that Oliveira is right up there with the champ!

And Conor McGregor? That would be a travesty, plain and simple. A hugely lucrative, highly discussed, website traffic-generating travesty, but a travesty nonetheless. For once, UFC, don’t give “The Notorious” what he wants.

Instead, run it back with the two best lightweights in the world (we got to enjoy Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo four times, but we can’t get Makhachev vs. Oliveira twice?), and let these other fighters who are a clear step below wait a little longer and compete against one another for their shot at Makhachev. It’s entirely possible that we get a rerun of the first fight, but rarely do the majority of UFC championship rematches play out exactly the same way twice.

Oliviera might not be the most popular option, but I’m damn sure he’d be the most fun one to watch once that cage door actually closes.

Esther Lin, MMA Fighting

Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2 winner

Martin: No one is going to discount that Charles Oliveira made a compelling case for himself as the No. 1 contender at lightweight following a first-round demolition over Beneil Dariush at UFC 289, but we are also incredibly guilty of living as prisoners of the moment in this sport.

Did we all suddenly forget that nine months ago Oliveira was getting manhandled by Islam Makhachev in a title fight? During his run as a championship fighter, Oliveira engaged in wars with every single opponent until he ran into a brick wall from Dagestan.

There was nothing compelling about that first fight outside of the lopsided nature of the result.

Let’s also not forget that they were competing for a vacant lightweight title after Oliveira missed weight for his fight against Justin Gaethje and he was stripped of the belt. Maybe that was a one-time hiccup and perhaps the scales were just off that night but whatever the case, Oliveira became the first UFC champion in history to lose the belt for missing weight (technically, Nicco Montano was also stripped under similar circumstances but she never even made it to the scales).

Add to that, it’s not like Oliveira was a five-time defending champion worthy of immediate consideration for another title shot. Technically, he only had one defense before he was stripped of the belt and then he lost to Makhachev.

Now let’s look ahead to July 29 when Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje will beat the living hell out of each other in the UFC 291 main event. Their first fight was an instant classic. Does anyone expect the rematch to be anything less than just awe-inspiring, jaw-dropping, Art the Clown levels of violence?

Somebody’s soul will be sacrificed in the octagon that night and then moments later as either Poirier or Gaethje are standing there with a hand raised in victory, that fighter will almost certainly become the new flavor of the month. No one will forget Oliveira’s win but suddenly Poirier or Gaethje will start looking like a compelling opponent and a new challenge for Makhachev, which is exactly what he wants and why he was rooting for Dariush to win at UFC 289.

Yes, Poirier and Gaethje have both had multiple opportunities to fight for titles in the past.

Yes, Poirier and Gaethje both lost to Oliveira within the past two years.

But neither of them have fought Makhachev and something moderately fresh would be a welcome change to running back yet another title fight. Plus there was already talk that either Poirier or Gaethje could leapfrog Dariush had he gotten the win at UFC 289 and he would have been a far more deserving contender than Oliveira.

This is also likely do or die for either Poirier or Gaethje and let’s also not kid ourselves: both are bankable stars. That only helps build the anticipation for a showdown with Makhachev in Abu Dhabi and if Oliveira is truly worthy, he’ll earn his opportunity with another win or two.

Photo By Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile via Getty Images

Conor McGregor

Meshew: You sweet, summer children. You poor, naive fools. Look at you, sitting here arguing for merit and fun, as if either of those things has any place in the modern UFC. To paraphrase the great Omar Little, “I’m here about the business,” and there is no bigger business in the MMA game than Conor McGregor.

“But Jed, Conor isn’t in the USADA pool! He has to wait six months to compete!”

Grow up Peter Pan, Count Chocula. USADA isn’t some government organization with strict oversight. They’re a third-party that the UFC pays millions of dollars a year to for testing. That’s it. The UFC can do whatever the hell they want, especially in Abu Dhabi, a place that pays the UFC exorbitant sums to bring stars to. Not to mention that even the USADA guidelines have an exemption for “exceptional circumstances.” If Brock Lesnar merits a special exemption, I’m pretty sure the UFC can convince themselves that Conor does too.

“But Jed, Conor is going to fight Michael Chandler!”

Unless bigger business gets in the way, and let me tell you, McGregor fighting Khabib’s protege for the title, in Abu Dhabi is about as big as business gets in the UFC in 2023. Conservative estimate, we’re talking 1.5 million pay-per-view buys. And hell, he can even go ahead and fight Chandler afterwards. If he wins (he won’t) then it’s a title fight and we know how much the UFC loves giving Chandler big opportunities, and if he loses, well, it’s the same as now, only with an extra hundred million dollars banked.

“But Jed, Islam won’t do it!”

Nonsense. Islam Makhachev is not one of The Dumbs. Fighting Conor McGregor is the ticket to stardom, it’s that simple. I was having a conversation with my neighbor just yesterday about the Miami Heat mascot thing and he brought up “that Russian guy who beat the hell out of McGregor” asking if he was still fighting. Regular people know MMA fighters in relation to McGregor, and that’s it. This is Makhachev’s best chance to become a household name. There is no other. If he beats Oliveira, or Volkanovski, or anyone else in the division, it simply won’t matter to 99.9 percent of the global population.

But fighting McGregor? That’s the jackpot. Makhachev will make more money in one fight than in his next five combined, and he’ll do it by facing the easiest opponent he’s had in like, four years. Then after that he can fight anyone in the world, because people will all tune in to watch The Next Khabib. Rematches with Oliveira and Volkanovski will be bigger. A fight with Gaethje or Poirier would be bigger. It would all be bigger and that’s what a good promotion is trying to do: build something bigger.

Plus, when Conor gets waxed, then we really don’t ever have to worry about him fighting for another title again, and think how great that will be. Really, this is the only sensible answer.