To UFC welterweight Matt Brown, Justin Gaethje’s quest to avenge a loss to Dustin Poirier may be a stronger motivating factor than Poirier’s aim to notch a second win.
Gaethje and Poirier meet for a second time at UFC 291, and Brown believes Gaethje’s schedule and motivation will be enough to prevail in the rematch.
“Gaethje has to know that he’s on his last run, and Poirier probably doesn’t feel a whole lot different,” Brown said on a recent episode of The Fighter vs. The Writer. “He’s got to know that he doesn’t have a lot left, but I think Gaethje is gonna be fighting for a little bit more, and I think that may be the difference-maker.”
The first meeting between Poirier and Gaethje was MMA Fighting’s 2018 “Fight of the Year,” receiving seven of eight first-place votes. That the lightweight meeting impressed was no surprise given Gaethje’s entries on the 2017 list, but Poirier proved to be the ingredient that took the action to the next level. After three brutal rounds, “The Diamond” managed to put away Gaethje with a flurry of punches to advance closer to the lightweight title.
Brown doesn’t discount Poirier’s ability to capitalize on momentum to swing fights in pivotal moments.
“Dustin Poirier, he’s one of the hardest punchers but … I don’t even like saying the hardest puncher, because he’s not a one-punch knockout guy, but he’s got like the stiffest fight-changing punch,” Brown said. “Almost like Manny Pacquiao, like he didn’t knock out a lot of guys. … He didn’t knock out a lot of guys with one punch. But when he hit guys, the fight changed right there. When he landed a clean shot, the opponent’s mentality just changed, and the guy did not want that again.
“That’s what I see with Dustin Poirier, and he’s gonna have to land one of those punches on Gaethje. He did it the first time they fought. But I think he’s gonna have to land again. I think Gaethje should be a little bit more aware. I’ve seen more improvement out of Gaethje. … But I think I’ve seen more improvement out of him since his last fight, and with that, I’m going to have to lean toward Gaethje in this.”
Both lightweights have competed eight times and earned 6-2 records in the octagon since their first meeting. Both also held the interim lightweight title and fell short to now-retired lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov. And both were also submitted via rear-naked choke by Charles Oliveira, though Gaethje’s title bout was one-sided after Oliveira infamously missed weight at UFC 274.
Poirier is now coming off a win over one-time title challenger Michael Chandler, while Gaethje is four months removed from a decision over surging contender Rafael Fiziev. The fighters remain must-see action in the octagon. However, there’s a question of which fighter has taken more damage since the first meeting, which fighter will be fresher, and according to Brown, who wants it more.
“In the first fight, I think Gaethje was doing really well, and I think he looked like he wasn’t drained from the weight cut, or out of shape – didn’t look injured or anything like that,” Brown said. “So, you’ve got to think that was the best he could do that night. So you’ve got to look at, OK what can we change now to make it a little bit better?
“Two things about Gaethje is that he has a lot of things that he doesn’t like to use – his wrestling, an obvious one which we talk about a lot. So I think that’s an easy one if he can add in a little bit more wrestling, and just throw Dustin off a little bit, and maybe discourage some of that hardcore forward pressure that Dustin likes to get going, and especially if Dustin does start to get going. We know how brutal Dustin can be once he gets going, right? Once he gets going, he’s a tough guy to stop. So I think that’s an easy one.
“But also, I think Gaethje can utilize like just simple things like his jab and his footwork more, just move around a little more, like, not make it as much of a war. And I actually think that Gaethje can make it potentially can make it lean into his favor if he uses skill vs. skill versus war vs. war fighter. I think that Gaethje has that in him to do that.”
Brown cites the talent of Gaethje’s longtime coach and corner, Trevor Wittman, as an asset going into the rematch. Whatever lessons were learned in the initial matchup, Brown expects them to be drilled into Gaethje when they meet on Saturday in Salt Lake City.
“It may come down to who does have more fire left in him at this point, you know what I mean? If I got a guess on that, and it’s totally a guess, I’m gonna guess Gaethje, and I’m probably gonna pick Gaethje to win this fight,” Brown said. “I think that he can make adjustments to win this fight.”
Brown added later, “But that’s completely hypothetical guess. And hopefully Dustin doesn’t want to kick my ass for saying it.”