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Josh Emmett’s back is to the wall.
That may sound harsh given that Emmett just fought for an interim title, but one gets the sense that that may have been his last shot if he doesn’t beat another contender quick. He gets that chance in the main event of UFC Jacksonville, but standing in his way is undefeated featherweight Ilia Topuria.
On paper, this bout looks designed to showcase Topuria — No. 8 at 145 pounds in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings — a five-tool player from Georgia who is yet to hit his athletic peak, having only turned 26 this year. Featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski next defends his title against Yair Rodriguez, and should he emerge victorious once again there aren’t too many challengers left in line ahead of Topuria. A big win on Saturday might just make him the No. 1 contender by default (assuming that Volkanovski doesn’t chase a rematch with lightweight champion Islam Makhachev).
In other main card action, two-division threat Amanda Ribas looks to stop the four-fight win streak of Maycee Barber in a flyweight bout, heavyweights Austen Lane and Justin Tafa throw down in a fight unlikely to last more than a few minutes, David Onama meets Gabrial Santos in a battle of featherweight prospects, and top 15 middleweight Brendan Allen fights the dangerous Bruno Silva.
What: UFC Jacksonville
Where: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla.
When: Saturday, June 24. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 11:30 a.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 3 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN.
Table of Contents
Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria
You never want to count out Josh Emmett, but Ilia Topuria’s heavy favorite status says more about his expected ascendancy than any shortcomings on Emmett’s part. It doesn’t help that Emmett recently turned 38, while Topuria is viewed as the leader of the featherweight youth movement. The odds have never been stacked higher against the resilient Emmett.
That could be to Emmett’s benefit, given that he’s frequently been the underdog and frequently overcome those expectations, thanks to his sharp striking and natural power. His takedown defense could be tested if Topuria decides to mix the martial arts, which is cause for concern. One reason Topuria is so highly regarded is that he’s more than just a standup slugger, so Emmett might not be given the chance to get his hands going.
For the most part, I expect this one to be contested on the feet, with the threat of a takedown doing lingering just enough to throw off Emmett’s rhythm. Topuria will use that advantage to set up combinations and wear Emmett down until he has him shelling up against the fence.
Topuria by third-round knockout.
Pick: Topuria
Amanda Ribas vs. Maycee Barber
I’m convinced that Maycee Barber’s recent win streak is a sign of legitimate progress. When Barber was first signed out of the Contender Series at just 20 years old, she rubbed more than a few people the wrong way with her proclamation that she would become the youngest champion in UFC history. That ship has sailed, but that doesn’t mean Barber is out of the running as a contender. If anything, she might be better off not having that unnecessary pressure she put on herself.
In contrast, Amanda Ribas has always presented herself as someone who doesn’t have a care in the world, but who can flip the switch and go beast mode when it’s time to go to work. She’s dangerous with her submissions and, like Barber, has shown improved striking.
What I’ve liked seeing from Barber lately is that there’s real intent behind her strikes. She’s too athletic to settle for being a point fighter, so watching her put some serious force onto her punches has been a joy to watch. The knockouts haven’t come, but they will if she keeps this up.
Ribas has suspect striking defense so if she can’t get her grappling offense going, I like Barber’s chances of hurting her and finding a finish in either the second or third round.
Pick: Barber
Austen Lane vs. Justin Tafa
If this one goes to the cards, it will be the frontrunner for the most surprising 15-minute fight of the year. Austen Lane has never gone to the scorecards; Tafa has, but is more well-known for fights lasting less than two minutes. Take the under.
Lane is an odd duck at heavyweight, a former NFL player who spends more time working off of his back after getting taken down than actually tackling others. At 6-foot-6, he wants to be utilizing his range as much as possible and combined with solid cardio for such a big guy, it’s led to positive results.
He’s waited a while to actually make his UFC debut, which is a shame because I expect Tafa to end this one early. Tafa has the gift of generating instant explosion in his punches seemingly out of nowhere. So Lane might think he’s leading the dance early only to eat a bomb that ruins his day.
Should be fun for as long as it lasts, but Tafa scores a KO in Round 1.
Pick: Tafa
David Onama vs. Gabriel Santos
David Onama is one to definitely one to watch at 145 pounds. If he’d laid his hands on anyone else besides Nate Landwehr in his most recent fight, he’d be walking out with a first-round knockout and a Performance of the Night bonus instead of a decision loss and a Fight of the Night bonus.
Then again, he could be in for another war because newcomer Gabriel Santos has a chin on him. “Mosquitinho” has been in his fair share of thrillers already in his young career and if you want to know why this fight was given a plum spot on an ABC main card, it won’t take long for them to show you.
Onama and Santos both have balanced skill sets, but it’s their striking that makes them special, and they’re going to want to prove just who has the biggest huevos as they bang it out for 15 minutes. Neither man has been finished and I’m not confident that will change on Saturday, but you can bet that they’re going to give it everything they’ve got to avoid the judges.
I’m higher on Onama as a prospect, so I’ll pick him to win a decision.
Pick: Onama
Brendan Allen vs. Bruno Silva
The last time I broke down a Brendan Allen fight, I said he had no business messing around on the ground with Andre Muniz. Well, guess what, he submitted Muniz in the third. This time, I’m sure he has no business standing and striking with Bruno Silva.
So I guess you can mark Allen down for a highlight-reel knockout.
But seriously, he can’t win on the feet against Bruno Silva, right? Allen is certainly a willing striker, but “Blindado” is a knockout artist of the highest order and Allen’s chin has been cracked before. Don’t mix the martial arts, Allen, just put your jiu-jitsu up against Silva’s and hope for the best.
Allen is actually slightly favored right now according to DraftKings, so let me provide some motivation if I can (it worked out pretty well for him, last time): Silva shakes off Allen’s early takedown attempts before unloading in the second round for the knockout win.
Now go prove me wrong again, Allen.
Pick: Silva
Preliminaries
Neil Magny def. Phil Rowe
Randy Brown def. Wellington Turman
Loik Radzhabov def. Mateusz Rebecki
Gillian Robertson def. Tabatha Ricci
Joshua Van def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Trevor Peek def. Chepe Mariscal
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